The Green Methanol Sector is Gaining Momentum! What Challenges does Hydrogen Energy Consumption and Energy Adaptation Face?

In recent years, investment in the green methanol sector has continued to surge, with planned and under-construction projects reaching 51 million tons by the end of last year. However, amidst this boom, very few projects have actually been implemented and are operating smoothly . Due to multiple factors such as technological barriers and supply chain coordination efficiency, achieving large-scale implementation of green methanol is proving difficult .

1. The high-yield dilemma caused by dual constraints of technology and industrial chain

The current green methanol market is characterized by "high selling price, high profit, and low capacity release ," meaning that the production cost is about 4,000 yuan /ton , while the market selling price reaches 1,000 US dollars /ton . In reality, it is difficult to promote due to the complexity of the production process and the high technical threshold.

There are two main pathways for the production of green methanol, each facing its own development challenges. First, biomass-to-methanol conversion technology is relatively mature, but its raw material composition is complex , gasification is difficult, and it is prone to clogging of gasification equipment. Furthermore, raw material supply fluctuates significantly, transportation costs are high, and the coordination between upstream and downstream processes presents considerable challenges. Second, the route of coupling green hydrogen with carbon dioxide to produce methanol aligns with the development direction of carbon-free emission reduction, but it is limited by the high cost of green hydrogen, the pressure and cost of safety management in storage and transportation, and is only suitable for specific scenarios such as heavy freight and ocean shipping, making widespread adoption difficult.

2. Hydrogen energy consumption and energy adaptation 

Utilizing surplus electricity generated from photovoltaic and wind power is one of the core logics behind developing the green methanol industry . This involves simultaneously achieving the conversion and storage of green electricity and the efficient utilization of hydrogen energy, offering multiple environmental benefits. However, there is a significant gap between theoretical concepts and practical implementation . Most companies are still focusing on traditional biomass-to-methanol technology, rather than the production path of coupling green hydrogen with carbon dioxide.

More importantly, there is a core contradiction in energy matching: photovoltaic and wind power generation are greatly affected by weather and seasonal changes, inherently exhibiting instability, while green methanol production plants rely on a continuous and stable power supply to ensure operational efficiency. The initial purpose of developing this industry was to solve the problem of surplus power consumption, but it is constrained by intermittent power shortages, and a perfect solution to this core problem has yet to be found .

3. The development prospects are promising.

The market demand for green methanol is mainly driven by overseas markets, with the EU's stringent carbon tax policy and decarbonization standards in the shipping sector being the core drivers. Using green methanol as a ship fuel can help shipping companies avoid high carbon penalty costs, making ocean-going vessels the primary carriers of demand. Leading companies in the industry, such as Maersk and COSCO Shipping, are actively developing methanol-powered ships.

According to relevant forecasts, by 2030, the number of methanol-powered ships in operation globally will increase from the current 83 to 450, while the market demand for green methanol will exceed 14 million tons during the same period. In China , about 20% of the planned capacity projects have entered the substantive implementation stage. Affected by factors such as initial technological maturity, raw material supply stability, cost control, and market demand fluctuations, the industry's initial capacity utilization rate will remain at a low level, and the supply gap may persist for a considerable period.

Overall, the development prospects of the green methanol industry are promising. However, to transform market enthusiasm into actual production capacity benefits, the entire industry needs to work together to overcome core issues such as technological bottlenecks, supply chain integration, and energy compatibility in order to cope with the upcoming surge in demand.

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